Tuesday, November 8, 2011

Why China is unlikely to attack India now

Why China is unlikely to attack India now

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Why China is unlikely to attack India now
In recent weeks, several senior analysts have predicted a repeat of the 1962 conflict between India and China.

The most prominent is Brahma Chellaney of the Centre for Policy Research who wrote in India Today: "As the 50th anniversary of China's invasion approaches, history is in danger of repeating itself, with Chinese military pressures and aggressive designs against India not only mirroring the pre-1962 war situation but also extending to Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) and the oceans around India."

"China's expanding axis of evil with Pakistan, including a new troop presence in PoK, heightens India's vulnerability in Jammu and Kashmir, even as India has beefed up its defences in Arunachal Pradesh."

Ali Ahmed, a Senior IDSA Fellow published a Brief ("A Consideration of Sino-Indian Conflict") in which he attempted to fill a gap "by dilating upon conflict scenarios along the spectrum of conflict."

Ahmed wrote of limited hostilities which "could be confined to a specific section of the border, limited in duration and amenable to a negotiated termination," a Kargil-type situation.

Ahmed also examined the possibility of China "indulging in a territorial grab by entering an area such as Tawang in Arunachal Pradesh".

Image: Soldiers from the PLA's 6th Armoured Division, seen carrying the Chinese type 97 semi-auto machine guns, march at their military base on the outskirts of Beijing on March 31, 2009. (Photo credit: AP)

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